Corona Virus, general conversation

So figuring a population of 327 Million in the US...

60% will be infected = 196,000,000 people.

50% of those will be Symptomatic = 98 mil.

3% of those will be hospitalized = 2.94 mil

0.25% of those will die = 7,350 deaths in the US. So a death rate of 0.0025% amongst the US population.

According to this model. Another model I had cited to me by a relative whose part of the Biomedical Engineering Department at Stanford University was quoting Millions of deaths in the US. When I questioned the algorithms and data inputs as to how they arrived at that number I was told they were scientific professionals.

I don’t know who to believe so I’ll just be careful who I come into contact with, take extra caution with cleanliness and shake my head at the madness.

I know who to believe, and it ain't the random anecdotal stuff going around. ;)
 
I don’t know who to believe so I’ll just be careful who I come into contact with, take extra caution with cleanliness and shake my head at the madness.
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Exactly.

The adventure forums, social media, the news are all full of people finding stats and opinions to back up this or that report of doom, gloom, or "this is all bullshit and will be over before you know it" prognostications.

What I'm finding interesting, as this thing becomes more apparent in growing numbers, hits closer to home, and govt's taking drastic actions, is the flip-flopping going on from folks who poo-pooed it and poked fun at it initially who are now, in the last day or two, all "this is serious folks, do this, make sure you do that" when the info and indicators have been there all along.

Frustrating to have been suggesting to folks for weeks that we need to get out ahead of it more than we were and now be told by those who were ignoring it what we have to do now.

/vent

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IMO the populace has grown weary of the media blowing things out of proportion with their "storm of the century, decade, epoch", "worst ever" this and that, etc. Until whichever current crisis hits us at home we tend to blow it off.
 
IMO the populace has grown weary of the media blowing things out of proportion with their "storm of the century, decade, epoch", "worst ever" this and that, etc. Until whichever current crisis hits us at home we tend to blow it off.
This
 
unfortunately we are see pandemonium & irrational behavior by the public with their actions. A lot of this hysteria comes from the media & social net work bloggers spinning this hype into a apocalyptic crisis than what it really is. We've seen the same response to the HIV\AIDS back when it 1st came out. Remember how some of the public re-acted during the OJ Simpson trail in the 1990's? People were quiting there jobs to stay home and watch this trail, crazy. No one thinks "rationally" when in a panic? Good judgement comes from a sound mind that produces controlled emotions, keeping a positive mind set (in reality) to face the unthinkable situation, this will help you process what’s happening @ the moment with accurate assessment. What makes this difficult for "some" is the media with 1\2 truths or distorted facts. Most people of our country are unprepared for any situation that could happen, most have less than 3 days of stored water, food in there homes. Most do not even know the basic survival skills to handle a short term crisis and I would really hate to see them in a long term crisis.
Sally & I live on the 80-20 rule. Simply having one month or more of supplies in your home with a well grounded solid plan w\ contingency plan means you are better prepared to handle most emergencies than 80% of the population.
The media needs to stop playing the Chicken Little Syndrome, stop being the medical advisers, the dooms dayer propagandist, the criticizers & let our government agencies do the job. Less hype from them would make things a less hectic.
 
People are still planning parties all across California.

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@Dave

Updated EPA List of disinfectants + times of exposure required to eliminate a coronavirus below detectable levels (not eliminate 100%).

https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2
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They're Spring-Breaking in FL too, like there's no tomorrow. Some of the Mayors of beach cities are closing dry beaches and saying "yeah, spring break is over, kids."

Good link to disinfectant list.

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Do you need some bleach, but can't find any? My brother tried to buy some, but the shelves were bare everywhere he went. So he stopped in a swimming pool place and bought a gallon of Sodium Hypochlorite. Same stuff except the swimming pool stuff is 20% and Clorox is 8% so you need to dilute it before use. Swimming pool place had plenty, apparently the panicked hordes haven't figured this out, yet.
 
Message from Master Pull
Well aren’t these some interesting times! We hope everyone out there is keeping safe and doing everything they can to mitigate the spread of Covid-19.

Operations are still running here at Master Pull, however, we are limiting hours and staggering shifts to ensure the safety of our employees. Orders will continue shipping daily, but bear with us if it takes a little longer for your order to ship.

If you can’t reach us by phone, we may be out of the office so shoot us an email at sales@masterpull.com and we’ll respond as soon as we can.

Remember, this is going to take a team effort, so hopefully if we all work together (6’ apart mind you), we’ll get over this sooner than later!

Cheers.
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Do you need some bleach, but can't find any? My brother tried to buy some, but the shelves were bare everywhere he went. So he stopped in a swimming pool place and bought a gallon of Sodium Hypochlorite. Same stuff except the swimming pool stuff is 20% and Clorox is 8% so you need to dilute it before use. Swimming pool place had plenty, apparently the panicked hordes haven't figured this out, yet.

Good point!
 
Do you need some bleach, but can't find any? My brother tried to buy some, but the shelves were bare everywhere he went. So he stopped in a swimming pool place and bought a gallon of Sodium Hypochlorite. Same stuff except the swimming pool stuff is 20% and Clorox is 8% so you need to dilute it before use. Swimming pool place had plenty, apparently the panicked hordes haven't figured this out, yet.

Great, wished you hand’t pointed this out. I just purchased some for my hot tub and was thinking no one has figured this out yet.
 
Got this from today's New York Post . . .

It will take about two years for the coronavirus pandemic to run its course — but that depends on how fast a vaccine becomes available, according to Germany’s public health agency.

Dr. Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute, said that between 60 percent and 70 percent of the global population will eventually become infected before recovering and acquiring immunity, Reuters reported.

“Our working assumption is that it will take about two years,” he told a news conference Tuesday, adding that the timing also depends on the speed at which a vaccine is developed and deployed.

“We do not yet know what the death rate will look like in the end,” he said.

Wieler said the institute was raising the risk level in Germany to “high,” noting that without the strict social distancing measures that Chancellor Angela Merkel announced Monday, the country could see millions of cases.
 
This appeared on The Atlantic site:

What It Really Means To Cancel Elective Surgery

Three weeks ago, Robert Cruickshank went to the ER in Seattle with terrible abdominal pain. The diagnosis? Gallstones. The hospital gave him strong painkillers and urged him to come back again—and soon—to have his gallbladder removed. “It doesn’t have to happen tonight,” he recalls the doctors saying, “but get it scheduled as soon as possible.” No one yet knew that the coronavirus was already spreading undetected through the city. Cruickshank briefly wondered if this virus in the news would affect things when scheduling the surgery for yesterday, but his doctor didn’t seem worried.

By this past Friday, everything had changed. The doctor’s office called to say that his gallbladder-removal surgery would be postponed indefinitely.

All over the country, patients are finding their nonemergency surgical appointments canceled as hospitals prepare for a spike in coronavirus cases. Surgeries for early-stage cancer, joint replacements, epilepsy, and cataracts are all getting pushed back—to ration much-needed personal protective equipment, keep hospital beds open, and to shield patients from the virus. On Friday, the American College of Surgeons recommended that hospitals reschedule elective surgeries as needed. Hospitals in outbreak hot spots such as Seattle, New York, and Boston were the first to act, but more are likely to follow suit.

Some patients are left wondering if they have a ticking time bomb inside them

Others are upending carefully made plans for life-altering surgeries with long recovery times.

/Elective surgery/ does not mean optional surgery. It simply means nonurgent, and what is truly nonurgent is not always so obvious. Gerard Doherty, the chair of the surgery department at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, which began postponing elective surgeries on Friday, says surgical procedures can fall into one of three categories. About 25 percent of the surgeries performed at his hospital can be delayed without much harm. These might include joint replacements and bariatric surgeries for weight loss. Another 25 percent are for life-threatening emergencies that need to be treated right away: perforated bowels, serious heart problems, bones that have broken through the skin.

The last 50 percent are the tricky ones. These cases, Doherty says, have “some potential for harm to delay”; they might include cancer and problems in the blood vessels of the arms and legs. Brigham and Women’s is postponing some of these surgeries now on a case-by-case basis.

In Cruickshank’s case, for example, the initial bout of acute pain has passed. (That might have been when a gallstone got stuck.) He still feels “a little something” every now and then, and he worries that a flare-up might send him to the ER again. “Now I’m concerned,” he says. “If I go to the ER, are they going to have to turn me away and say, ‘Sorry, we have a bunch of coronavirus patients’?” The middle of a pandemic is a bad time to have a health emergency.

For other patients, the canceled appointments have meant rescheduling long-anticipated and life-changing surgeries. Sherrie Kumm, 33, of Ellensburg, Washington, has epilepsy that causes her to have a petit-mal seizure nearly every day. She can’t drive. For the past six months, she has been preparing to have a small section of her brain removed to stop the seizures—a two-part surgery that would require a two-to-four-week hospital stay. She took a semester off from her online degree, took time off from her job at a school, and arranged for her mother to watch her two sons while she was hospitalized.

As late as Thursday, her doctor’s office had called to confirm the surgery. She had packed a suitcase, complete with the front-opening nightgowns she had specially ordered to wear in the hospital. On Friday morning, her doctor’s office called again, this time to postpone the appointment. “I had been mentally preparing and physically preparing myself and my children for six months,” she says. The sudden cancellation has been hard for her, and she’s unable to plan or reschedule her surgery for now.

Kumm’s neurosurgeon at the University of Washington, Andrew Ko, told me that the policy to postpone elective surgeries came down from the hospital administration on Thursday evening. On Friday morning, he and his office started to cancel some 30 surgeries scheduled for the following two weeks. That included surgeries like Kumm’s, as well as implants for movement disorders and removals of slow-growing brain tumors that patients may have had for years. Brain-cancer surgeries, though, are going ahead. Ko said his hospital is prioritizing surgeries in which “the length of your life is affected.” The “quality of life” surgeries are the ones now getting postponed.

Canceling surgical appointments is also meant to limit the number of people circulating through hospitals. Surgeries like Kumm’s, which require a long hospital stay, during which visitors might be coming in and out, Ko said, may be particularly risky from the point of view of spreading the coronavirus. Hospitals around the country are also limiting patients to one adult visitor.

In general, doctors and nurses are being more careful about conserving personal protective equipment in the operating room. Doherty says his hospital is having nurses stay in the operating room after they set up, so that they don’t have to reenter and use a new set of surgical masks, gloves, and gowns.

At some point, depending on how long the coronavirus outbreak lasts, some nonurgent surgeries could very well become urgent. “Right now, most people are planning for a time period of four to six weeks for the peak to hit, but nobody really knows,” says David Hoyt, the executive director of the American College of Surgeons. “We’re using our best judgment on the fly.” And when hospitals do have capacity again, they will have a backlog of postponed surgeries to go through. Hospitals are going to be busy for a while.

With confirmed coronavirus cases varying so much from state to state, some patients are in a bit of a limbo. Cody Lawrence, 27, of Fort Myers, Florida, needs major thoracic surgery to fix a birth defect that has left him in too much pain to work recently. He and his wife are planning to drive three hours and stay at a hotel in Orlando, where he is scheduled to have surgery in less than two weeks. The specific surgery requires deflating one of his lungs, and he will need to be on a ventilator, which may soon be in short supply. With the coronavirus going around, he’s concerned for his wife, who just finished chemotherapy, and for himself. “If I catch it,” he worries, “I’m pretty much a goner.”
 
Got this from today's New York Post . . .

It will take about two years for the coronavirus pandemic to run its course — but that depends on how fast a vaccine becomes available, according to Germany’s public health agency.

Dr. Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute, said that between 60 percent and 70 percent of the global population will eventually become infected before recovering and acquiring immunity, Reuters reported.

“Our working assumption is that it will take about two years,” he told a news conference Tuesday, adding that the timing also depends on the speed at which a vaccine is developed and deployed.

“We do not yet know what the death rate will look like in the end,” he said.

Wieler said the institute was raising the risk level in Germany to “high,” noting that without the strict social distancing measures that Chancellor Angela Merkel announced Monday, the country could see millions of cases.
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Interesting projection. An awful lot depends on the speed in which an effective vaccine is developed and how widespread inoculations are.

We're writing the chapters of this very interesting book as we go along, and if done well, it will prove to be a worthy manual for generations to come.

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