Corona Virus, general conversation

#41
The main reason for COVID-19's mortality rate is it's ability to compromise a paitents respiratory system and given them pneumonia.
I haven't heard that before - the part about pneumonia. That actually relieves my mind somewhat, as I've had both types of anti-pneumonia vaccines. Hopefully, if worse comes to worst, that will help. Thanks.
 
#43
Italy also has a much older population (oldest average in the world according to sources googled). Culturally they are also more physical which could contribute to spread.

What are the latest stats here? I was on a hilltop out of service for the day. Twas nice.
 

Doug

Adventurist
Senior Staff
Founding Member
#44
My thoughts as posted to Facebook among all the Coronavirus memes I was posting:

Ok, sure, I've got jokes. But in reality have yet to see anyone "panicking". In today's age of "just in time" delivery systems, stores don't stock as much as they used to so if there's a 50% to 100% increase in sales, they run out with just normal people buying twice what they normally would.

The reason there are so many public event and public space closures, and more to come, isn't because everyone believes we're in a zombie apocalypse. Have you been to a hospital in the last few years? How long did you have to wait to get a room? They were full. If we increase the number of patients by 10%, 20%, 50%, 100%, where will they go and how many of them will receive no care? How many respirators do you think they have in reserve?

If infections will occur regardless, if we can slow the rate and spread it over time, more people will receive care as beds free up. It's just that simple, and why we should practice social distancing and not congregating in large crowds where it's not possible.

P.S. and if you believe no one is going to get sick, or just as many as a flu season, I sincerely hope you're right. I'm totally fine with you pointing it out next time there's a virus as I do my part to try to prevent it's spread. I can take it. I'll still have jokes then too.
 
#45
actually my wife was telling me the hospital she works @ is putting together 12 room negative air pressure isolation ward. There is no facility prepared for this type of outbreak, just like no facility was prepared (special equipment, supplies) for Ebola virus in USA 2014. The hospitals that we lucky enough to get the funding for all the equipment for Ebola still have this equipment: space suits, specialy head gear and mask, washing containment systems for patient and employees. Some are kept in rolling enclosed cargo trailers so that it can be utilized all together if there is an out break. The difference regarding the Ebola and NOW the Cornonavirus is, the Ebola was mostly contained in it's orginal country origin, not spread to all the other countries that Coronavirus is and with that difference that is what has created shortages of medical supplies for hospitals and the public. If China was honest and quicker to a let other countries know about the outbreak, and other foreign countries re-acted on closures going in or out of the country things would be different for them. The last president let Americans come back to the U.S.A. to start and complete their Ebola treatment, which in my opion was taking a huge risk because no matter how much resources you have, when human intervention comes to play someone could make just one slip from protocal and bam you are contaminated, too many variable to go wrong. IMO the infected Ebola patients should of stayed where they were until they were "all clear" for travel. Now as for what our current president did in shutting down our borders for the Coronavirus was spot on. Stop it at the source: that is the reason we have the few cases that are currently being reported in the U.S.A. right now. CONTAINMENT is the key....What our current president is doing is spot on doing what he has done. Encouraging travel bans, companies such as Disneyland to close temporarily, the cruises etc. The people needs to think smart act on "common sense" not what the media is spewing politically & the lack of knowledge on this virus. When folks see that they go to their local Wal Mart store and there is no toilet paper or paper towels or some canned foods, you can imagine the challenges that hospitals have to get supplies due to the high demand from this hysteria the media created. Something just as simple as over the ear fan masks that you see all the public wear are UNAVAILABLE or are on allocation from the hospitals main supplier. When you think that on an average clinic or Dr. Office setting they might issue 3-4 masks. But on an average day a clinic or Dr. office can see on an average of 60-80 patients and everyone is using a mask, well you do the math.
Also there are several issues at hand when any disicion has to be made at a hospital all the departments that need to be involved for protocal of a situation like the Ebola or Cornoavirus: Administration, Risk Management Infection Contol, Legal, Pharmacy, Materials Management, Plant Operations and Securty, Enviromental Services and Dietary ALL have to agree and come to a total agreement of supplies equipment and protocal for any current contagious situation, even if it's measles or T.B. Be as prepared as possible, but there is NO perfect situation and some will fall short and have to restructure their inviroment to meet the needs of the publicthis is what we are experiencing in areas of our country & other countries it's self, staff and visitors of any facility, clinic or Dr.'s office.
People need to remember that it's the hospital responseablitlty to determine what is needed especially for capital expenditure to maintain the patient care of their facilty. Hospitals don't have the luxury to just buy expensive equipment and have it sit somewhere in outside storeage just waiting to be utilized. Even though it's new equipment, with many of these devices driven by computers of some sort for diagnosis or reporting, if you don't use it you lose it. In other words they need to be used and everything has a warranty when purchased especially the extrememly high priced medical equipment and the supplies that are associated with using it also. When there is a emergency trauma of multiple injuries in a vehicle crash, EACH patient is accessed as to who is in the most dire need of equipment and supplies at the time. Everyone is evaluated to the needs of care. That is the same protocol for anyone that comes to a facility, clinic or Dr. Offices no matter what the situation is. The BIG difference of this Coronovirsus and anything else we have had in the past 10 years or so world wide is the continual miss informed in many cases of the media and the non professional want to be Dr's giving stats and advise to the masses on social networks which only again leads to mass hysteria. Leave it to the professionals, they know what is best, not someone that takes a snap shots of cargo trucks leaving a toilet paper plant, this only promotes the hysteria & misleads the public.
 
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Road

Adventurist
#46
It's past the point of appropriate containment, and what's going on at the airports that the feds have directed all returning passengers from Europe to is a dangerous example.

Borders aren't "closed"; that's just to citizens from other countries.

US citizens currently returning from countries with higher infection rates than our own, because of the new travel ban, are standing in 5-6 hour wait lines in tightly packed terminals at OHare and DFW etc waiting to go through customs, get screened for Covid-19, and for baggage.

Massive failure in handling the crowds appropriately. Airport managements have been pleading for more staff from the govt that directed all these people to select airports without a proper plan in place to handle the numbers.

Read up on asymptomatic spread. This virus is easily spread by those who may not have any symptoms and do not feel ill. The time for aggressive testing has slipped us by. Those countries that initiated aggressive testing--not only limited testing of those with severe symptoms as has been happening in the US--were far more able to contain and flatten the curve.

Until the last few days, folks returning from overseas complained of not even being screened or questioned upon arrival.

We are at the point of care and flattening the curve of infection so our health system does not get as overwhelmed as other countries.

These are facts, not hyped media outcries from left or right:

In 2018, the current administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure.

From foreignpolicy.com:
"In May 2018, Trump ordered the NSC’s entire global health security unit shut down, calling for reassignment of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer and dissolution of his team inside the agency. The month before, then-White House National Security Advisor John Bolton pressured Ziemer’s DHS counterpart, Tom Bossert, to resign along with his team. Neither the NSC nor DHS epidemic teams have been replaced."
I remember reading about the elimination of the pandemic response team then and thinking "Oh christ, some new virus hits us, this is gonna be a royal mess."

We have no coordinated national response in our health system or preparedness. It's generally left up to the states and counties.

Here's an interesting explanation of Facts on Coronavirus Testing that explains a bit on the US response to developing test kits.

Here's a really interesting interview on Joe Rogan with Michael Osterholm, "an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.

It's long and they eventually go into things like Lyme Disease etc, though there is a ton of interesting, thought-provoking information on coronaviruses and testing:


There is a ton of good info out there from experts and officials who have served in non-partisan ways through several administrations. I urge everyone to do the research and reading, and not only pay attention to mainstream media, whether left or right leaning.

As example of the spread and how fast, last Monday--less than a week ago and according to the regularly updated interactive map from John Hopkins School of Public Health, global health experts--there were, to pick a few countries:

- 566 known and confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the US
- 1209 known and confirmed cases in France
- 929 known and confirmed cases in Spain

As of early this morning, six days later, there are:

- 2,952 known and confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the US
- 4,481 known and confirmed cases of Covid-19 in France
- 6,391 known and confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Spain

Not all countries confirmed cases are growing at the same rate.

France just ordered, nationwide, the closing of all cafés, restaurants and all non-essential businesses.
Spain has just followed Italy in putting the entire country on lockdown, telling everyone to stay indoors.

I'm not trying to incite further madness and panic, but it is irresponsible to ignore facts and what is happening around the world and think we have it more under control than everyone else. The fact is, we don't.

This is going to be a very interesting week as our numbers in the US start to soar more.

.
 
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#47
I saw a doctor on TV who mentioned that at this point in the flu season, a large proportion of hospital beds already hold flu patients.
Yes, I watch on news doctors were saying the same. My wife mention this in there hosiptals. This Conoravirus had the timing of flu season. I'm one who has to be careful do to compromised immune system from finishing up on chemotherapy. Common sense practice is what I'm doing, staying away from crowds or town, washing hands, keeping hands away from face this was suggested by my primary doctor & my oncologist, this practice was for the flu, now since this Coronavirus "for me" is no different than my precautions during flu season. Like I posted in the same thread here's reality, as of March 11 2020 in the state of Arkansas 86 people died of the flu, CDC stated since Oct 1st 2019 until Feb. 2020 12,000 people have died from the flu. If you remember the flu season usually dies off in later part of Apirl but their is sutuations were the flu season stretched into another month do to theseverity scale . I'm not saying that this Conornavirus will or wouldn't what I am saying "for myself" for me minimizing my risk for possible infection from the flu or this Conoravirus I'm taking the safeguards I mention. Doesn't limit me & the wife to get out & explore, seek out new places to camp & relax, I just have to remind myself what "I" have to do to insure my wellbeing "health" when Sally & I are out exploring, camping.
 
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#48
I haven't heard that before - the part about pneumonia. That actually relieves my mind somewhat, as I've had both types of anti-pneumonia vaccines. Hopefully, if worse comes to worst, that will help. Thanks.
Not sure what you mean by "both types of anti-pneumonia vaccines", presumably Prevanr 13 and Pneumovax23. Both are against bacterial pneumonia.
The resultant pneumonia from Covid19 is viral.
(Based on my research based on our pneumonia vaccinations.)
 
#51
Think lines are long and shelves empty at grocery stores? Check out a gun store. I've been considering a new revolver, and called around for inventory at local places. Last Friday (March 6) I was the only person at the gun counter at one of the four Cabela's in Ohio.

This past Friday, (March 13), I waited almost an hour just to get my turn at the gun counter at one of Ohio's large family owned hunting supply stores. NICS was so backed up from nationwide background checks that it took an hour to get approved. Then 8-12 people deep at the check out counter. Just over three hours from walking in to walking out.

Handgun and shotgun ammunition shelves were nearly empty. AR clones and autoloader pistols were being sold by the piles. The very overworked and polite lady waiting on me said it was slower at that time. Earlier there were 50 people per open register. And this was during the day, while people were supposedly at work. I can't imagine what it would have been like on Saturday!

I just went on a whim, because I had a hankering for a new toy and drove an hour, so I stuck it out. But I was far from the norm. These people were mostly in panic mode, spending thousands like they planned on protecting their toilet paper with lethal force.

As an aside, I saw a meme where the husband said his wife spent so much money on toilet paper, that it would have been cheaper to buy a bidet. :)

A Kimber K6s 3" followed me home... :rolleyes:
 
#52
Panic mode is exactly right. I have to guess that these were mostly people who didn't already own guns. Because if you owned guns, you wouldn't need to rush out in a panic to buy one. So now we've got a whole bunch of armed noobs with - probably - little to no experience or training. Wonderful.
 

richard310

Adventurist
Moderator
Author
#53
A few observations from being abroad the past week and a half:

Just flew in from Doha, Qatar yesterday for business. We cut our trip a week early due to the rising concern back home and the impending ban on flights into the US, which was the breaking point. The flight out of LAX back on 4 March connecting at Istanbul on Turkish Air was packed, but the stewardesses did not have masks on. I'd say 1 out of every 25-30 people at the airport and in Doha had masks on. The flight back home 14 March on Qatar Air was similarily packed but the stewardesses had masks on. 1 out of every 3 people had masks on. Airports were slightly higher populated than normal but not ridiculous. Most everyone had masks on by the time we hit Customs.

Through the Customs lines, they herded us into the standard lines, even US citizens, and Mobile Passport was closed. The lines were packed but from my understanding, the wait time was typical. We were waiting for about 45minutes to be processed. DHS and CBP personnel were slightly more than normal.

At the actual processing counter, a few usual questions from the officer, a warm "welcome back" and we strolled right through. Others and non-citizens, on the other hand, were interrogated a little more thoroughly and had to be passed on to officers for further questioning, most likely due to countries they had been through etc. CDC was on site, but I didnt see any FLIR cameras being used. Going through Istanbul and arriving at Qatar on my departed flight on 4 March, we passed through numerous FLIR stations. Very surprising I didnt see any on arrival back home, but I also don't recall any stations on my way out of LAX.

Coming home to empty shelves at the stores and markets, and the just ridiculous hoarding and the lot, it's depressing as Doha, Qatar in general had none of those issues. They did seem in a bubble but they were starting to hunker down as the numbers began to rise exponentially overnight. They had 2 isolated cases one day, 6 the next, then jumped to 24 and then up to 238 before we left. They also had banned 14 countries from crossing their borders prior to our departure.

You could really tell the local impact since the MotoGP Pro Race had been postponed (minus the Moto2 and Moto3) and the DIMDEX show we were supposed to attend was cancelled as well. The hotels were more so impacted as we talked to a few servers and they told us that this is the worst it has ever been. Early on we had a few race teams staying at the same hotel and also a high number of businessmen and construction/security personnel. As the days pressed on, it definitely had gotten quieter since our arrival. Now seeing the potential of a full country shutdown, I'm more worried about the economincal recession and it's slow recovery, than this small viral outbreak... Also with the talk of NG troops to control containment being even thrown around, well shit.

But It does feel much better to be home and it definitely calmed the family and wife as they were getting anxious of me being out of country.
 
#54
My wife was directed to be tested for covid-19 after testing negative for Influenza A, B, chest X-ray negative for pnuemonia. One testing station for greater Denver. 7 1/2 hours from when she left to when she returned home. over 5 of those hours were just waiting in line. Was told 4 days to get results. Fortunately she does not have a compromised immune system. I believe I left home just in time to not catch it from her.

I am 2000 miles away help my daughter after her surgery. Heading home tomorrow morning. I have food and my camping gear if I need it.

Good thing I was at snowverland, everything else is warm and dry.
 
#55
Just a note to put things into perspective. Here are the current estimates of how many Americans will need ventilators to not die.

1.2 million.

We have 180,000. And minus however many are currently used in long term facilities, or emergencies due to heart attack or whatever emergent condition not related to COVID-19.
--

You can also read this account from an elementary school friend based in Illinois.

 
#56
Additional notes.

Over half the COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands are under 50 yo, though the number of admitted under ICU is under 100. Other stats, they currently have 20 deaths, 1,136 cases, 2 recovered.

--

In china, 41% half of the patients in icu were 14-49. [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032]

--


The high mortality rates in older representations in all areas might be due to the lack of ventilators and people to intubate when required. by the time people needed them, they were either suffering from pulmonary edema or fibrosis from detritus due to the extreme immune response. some of the outcomes when from 0-60 in <18hrs.


I haven't heard that before - the part about pneumonia. That actually relieves my mind somewhat, as I've had both types of anti-pneumonia vaccines. Hopefully, if worse comes to worst, that will help. Thanks.
Pneumonia is an infection that causes pulmonary edema, fluid in the lungs. The infection can be either viral, bacterial, or parasites (very rare).

The other issue is kidneys. People who have long term kidney disease are in the high risk category along w/ immunocompromised individuals, folks w/ diabetes, or other poor health conditions.

The ACE2 receptors (that COVID-19 like) are commonly found in the lower respiratory tract (lungs) and kidneys. Another issue is when you're suffucating on pus in your lungs, some of that junk goes downstream to your trash compactor kidneys. They get clogged up and then you die from sepsis (bacterial infection of the blood). An overloaded immune system can't fight off basic stuff.

--- Also don't get me started on masks.

There's literally evidence from China that masks help everybody. There's also further evidence from SARS-COV 2003 in a 2008 study about the effectiveness of using just about anything covering your face.


#tableflip
 
#57
My daughter contacted me last night, the Peace Corp is evacuating all Peace Corp Volunteers from Namibia. She didn‘t know for the rest of the continent. One would assume that if they are pulling 185 PCV’s out of Namibia they will evacuate the continent.
 
#58
Pneumonia is an infection that causes pulmonary edema, fluid in the lungs. The infection can be either viral, bacterial, or parasites (very rare).
Thanks to both 4x4x4doors and yourself for clearing that up. I was hoping that COVID19 didn't DIRECTLY cause pneumonia, just that it screwed up your immune system enough that pneumonia - the kind that the pneumonia vaccines protect against - develops easily. Kind of like the way HIV doesn't kill directly, it just screws up your immune system enough that the common cold will kill you.

Needless to say, this really wasn't what I wanted to hear.

But, "give it to me straight, Doctor. I can take it!"
 
#59
Saw this in the New York Post. Apparently, everything that was old is new again.

Doctors searching for treatments to fight the coronavirus say the answer may be in the blood of recovered patients, according to a report.

Researchers at Johns Hopkins University want to use a method known as “convalescent serum,” which involves harvesting virus-fighting antibodies from the blood of patients who have already beaten the illness, NBC News reported

Dr. Arturo Casadevall, chair of the molecular microbiology and immunology department, said the treatment has not been implemented for decades in the US, though blood from survivors was used to treat the Spanish flu, polio and measles.

“I knew the history of what was done in the early 20th century with epidemics,” Casadevall told NBC. “They didn’t have vaccines then, they
didn’t have any drugs then — just like the situation we face now.”

In a new paper, Casadevall and a colleague, Dr. Liise-anne Pirofski, make the case that using blood serum or plasma from recovered patients might be the best option for treatment until a better cure is developed.

The report, which was published Friday in the Journal of Clinical Investigation, noted the practice was used in China during the 2009 outbreak of H1N1 influenza and the Ebola epidemic in 2013.

“Although every viral disease and epidemic is different, these experiences provide important historical precedents that are both reassuring and useful as humanity now confronts the COVID-19 epidemic,” the researchers wrote.

The virus — which first emerged in December — has now spread to more than 152,000 people in 144 countries.
 
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