Corona Virus, general conversation

Article from The Hill:

CDC Analysis Shows Coronavirus Poses Serious Risk for Younger People

Early data analyzed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that younger Americans are at substantial risk of experiencing serious medical problems from the coronavirus sweeping the globe.

That data runs counter to some of the early messaging from public health officials in other parts of the world.

A new CDC analysis of more than 2,400 cases of COVID-19 that have occurred in the United States in the last month shows that at least 1 in 7 and perhaps as many as 1 in 5 people between the ages of 20 and 44 who contract the virus require hospitalization, a level exponentially higher than the hospitalization rates for influenza.

Between 2 percent and 4 percent of people that young are admitted to intensive care units. The fatality rate is low, only 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent, but is about two times higher than a bad flu season.

Health outcomes are much worse among those who are older and those who have underlying health conditions. The early estimates show that a fifth to a third of those between the ages of 45 and 65 who contract the disease are hospitalized. Among those over 75 years old, hospitalization estimates range from 30 percent to more than 70 percent.

Among the oldest cohort, those over the age of 85, somewhere between 10 percent and a quarter of all patients die. The data show adults over the age of 65 account for 80 percent of the deaths with the coronavirus.

But younger Americans are contracting the virus at the same rates as those who are older. The initial round of data actually found more people between the ages of 20 and 44 who landed in the hospital than those over the age of 75 who wound up in treatment, even though mortality rates were lower for the younger set.

"Lots of young people are getting hospitalized, a lot more than we’re messaging, and, yes, maybe you don’t die, but living with a damaged lung or damaged organ is not a good outcome," said Prabhjot Singh, a health systems expert at Mount Sinai Health System and the Icahn School of Medicine.

Deborah Birx, one of the Trump administration's top experts on its coronavirus task force, said Wednesday that early data from France and Italy, both dealing with thousands of coronavirus cases, seemed to underscore the threat to younger people.

"There are concerning reports coming out of France and Italy about some young people getting seriously ill and very seriously ill in the ICUs," Birx said at a White House briefing

She did not offer further details.

The data, Singh said, shows the importance of government messaging to millennials and members of Generation Z that the virus poses a substantial risk no matter someone's age. And even if someone does not show serious symptoms, they can still spread the disease to friends, neighbors or relatives who will.

"We’re talking to young people about doing their part and being good millennials because they could be asymptomatic spreaders," Singh said. "That’s true, but it’s also true that some high number of them will also get sick enough to be hospitalized, and many of them may have lasting consequences."
 
The Navy Hospital Ship USNS COMFORT is being sent to NYC. It has 1,000 beds. It will be used, I hear, for NON coronavirus patients, thus freeing up regular hospital beds for them. Makes sense, I guess. If you segregate the coronavirus patients from the non-coronavirus patients, they will be less likely to catch it.

Anyway, according to the same news story, NY state has 53,000 hospital beds and estimates that it will need 110,000 beds during this pandemic, just to throw some numbers into this discussion.
 
The Mercy was underway yesterday off the coast of San Diego. Not sure if they were doing work ups/testing, or actually heading out.

The thing about the hospital ships is they have plenty of equipment/docs...and 1000 beds...here's the catch, the berthing is all close quarters, even bunk beds for patients. Word is they are going to treat "emergency room" type injuries...how are they going to screen these patients for the virus? One patient with the virus and you have a cruise ship scenario all over again.

Knee jerk reaction just to be doing "something" IMO.

Edit: Navy officials stressed that preparations for the Comfort, which have been "expedited," will take weeks before it is ready to assist. The Mercy is expected to be ready to assist "before the end of this month," Esper said.
 
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Reports are though, the ships may takes weeks to be ready.

The issue is not the ships. The issue is the people. The doctors and nurses and Corpsmen, and the people that actually operate the ship and make it move.

Hospital Ships are not staffed full time - they are incredibly complex and expensive. We cannot afford to staff them full time when not needed. And the critical skills of the people onboard would wither away - perishable skills like surgery etc must be maintained.

So, it's a surge capacity manning plan and the staff has to come from hospitals nationwide as well as other ships or Navy commands to make the Hospital Ship operate. Obviously, in time of war there would be a draft and many, many people to staff it full time.

So here we are. It takes time to man and provision them so they can respond. They'll be on station soon and doing what they can to help, you can take that to the bank.
 
The thing about the hospital ships is they have plenty of equipment/docs...and 1000 beds...here's the catch, the berthing is all close quarters, even bunk beds for patients. Word is they are going to treat "emergency room" type injuries...how are they going to screen these patients for the virus? One patient with the virus and you have a cruise ship scenario all over again.

Knee jerk reaction just to be doing "something" IMO.

Edit: Navy officials stressed that preparations for the Comfort, which have been "expedited," will take weeks before it is ready to assist. The Mercy is expected to be ready to assist "before the end of this month," Esper said.

Lots of beds is great. The issue is with COVID-19 we need isolation and ventilators - USNS Comfort for example is set up to treat WAR TIME casualties in support of the USMC and amphibious landings.

Screening will occur, and placing one of these ships in say, New York or San Francisco bay is actually a real force multiplier as them taking trauma patients and other sick and injured OUT of the local hospital picture allows the local hospital to adapt to a more specific COVID-19 response.

The USN cannot sit idle while this goes down so, yes, maybe you could say that it's just doing "something", but I think we can all agree that major assets like Hospital Ships and their attendant resources sitting idle is unacceptable.
 
^^^^How are they going to screen the trauma patients to verify that they aren't infected, is my question.

IMO, opening military hospital ER's to trauma patients would be much more effective.
 
IMO, opening military hospital ER's to trauma patients would be much more effective.
When my father was in the Army, military hospitals or clinics existed at virtually every base/post. Part of the justification was a promise of lifetime medical care for retirees and also to maintain the proficiency of the personnel in case they were needed for war time.
In the time you and I were in, the capability was being reduced and at the same time, dependents and retirees were more likely to be required to find medical care thru Champus and "on the local economy".
In recent months, even more military facilities are cutting back on non-Active Duty care, in part due to budget considerations.
In short, I'm not sure the capacity exists in military hospital ERs that you think.
 
^^^^I still contend that brick and mortar ER's on military bases are a lot more accessible than 2 ships tied up at a pier.
 
^^^^How are they going to screen the trauma patients to verify that they aren't infected, is my question.

IMO, opening military hospital ER's to trauma patients would be much more effective.

Most military hospitals are small and NOT trauma centers.
 
I'm not going to beat a dead horse to death (OK, that's a line of BS:cool:)

...a couple of hundred military medical clinics, dispensaries, whatever they are called today,"Urgent Care" in the civilian world, scattered through out the country, would be much more effective/reduce civilian hospital loads more than two hospital ships (one of which is now said to be weeks away from readiness). I get it, military medical clinics are not trauma centers...we've all been to an ER, 8 out of 10 aren't emergencies/trauma, but they still clog the system.

Maybe I'm a pessimist, I can't see that getting an accident victim that is critical, down a pier, and then up a gangway (no idea how they actually get a stretcher from the pier to the ship) from an ambulance is realistic. There's a fair chance that I also don't understand the medical definition of "trauma"...in my head, "trauma" means you are a hurting unit in need of immediate medical/life saving attention.

I still don't understand how they are going to determine that a "trauma" patient isn't infected with the virus. We're in agreement that USNS hospital ships are not equipped for isolation..."trauma patient" already weakened...then exposed to the virus from another patient...

Good conversation IMO.
 
There's a fair chance that I also don't understand the medical definition of "trauma"...in my head, "trauma" means you are a hurting unit in need of immediate medical/life saving attention.

There's a good possibility that I don't understand the medical definition of "trauma" either, but to me. there's "illness" usually, but not always caused by bacteria, viruses, etc. and there's "trauma" which is physical damage. Can be anything from a cut finger to a gunshot wound to the chest to a limb amputation caused by a car accident.
 
I think it’s time we as a group took a position on this whole issue. We’re working on an article in the background to fill in some of the information gaps as well as provide some advice on how we can all be productive during these times.
 
We are deciding wether or not to bring our daughter back from the Netherlands, where she is in college. The State Dept may restrict all travel into the US.
 
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